Fraser McIlwraith

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72 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 19 Jun

Fraser McIlwraith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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The Intelligence from The Economist · Coming in Andy: Britain's prime minister-in-waiting · 19 Jun 2026 podcast

Of this is that inflation, which was already very high in Iran, has risen very fast since the start of the war.

So last month inflation was about 84% year on year, which was double the level it was in January.

Food inflation was even higher.

That was into the triple digits.

Lots of poor Iranians were paying for things like bread and meat in installments, buying groceries on credit, which gives

gives you some indication of how dire things are.

No, there's no way that the kind of damage that has been done in Iran can be reversed immediately.

And again, it's worth remembering that this is an economy which was struggling a lot even before the war.

So getting back to where the country was before the war is still getting it back to a place which is pretty difficult.

But it is a start.

So the real Iran's currency, which has been basically in free fall this year, it did strengthen

once the MOU was announced.

And that probably reflects the fact that the blockades being lifted will have an immediate impact.

So Iran will be able to get oil exports flowing and that will inject cash into the economy quite quickly.

So the MOU seems to suggest that at least in the short term these things will go together.

So as well as the blockade being lifted and Iran being allowed to get its ships out of the Gulf, America may waive some of the sanctions on Iran's oil shipments, which will make it much easier for the country to not only sell those to a wider range of buyers, but also command a higher price.

Really this amounts to something quite humiliating.

for America.

Yeah, so there's a lot of question marks all over this figure.

It seems to be a case of the Americans kind of dangling a big juicy carrot in front of the Iranians.

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