Galen Druke
speaker
215 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2026
last heard yesterday
Galen Druke’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
But three points is not that big of a polling error.
In 2020, we saw a larger than average polling error, but Joe Biden still won because it was leading so much in the polls.
I should add that in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty two, the last midterm cycles that we have to go off of, the polls were very accurate.
Like the polls don't always fuck up, to be clear.
Am I allowed to swear?
I are allowed to offend anybody.
I think it's important to
Be careful about which polls you're looking at.
More often than not, you want to look at the average.
We can also delineate between high quality and low quality polls.
Yeah.
So first of all
Polsters putting out numbers that are outside the norm, outside of expectation, what we call an outlier in the industry, can be an indication of a high-quality poll, right?
They trust their methods, they're going with their gut, they're not hurting just to put their poll in line with everybody else's pull.
And we have seen in past cycles, for example, a high-quality pollster like the New York Times in 2022 publish.
outlier polls in house races where Democrats ended up doing quite well despite the fact that, you know, the expectation is that we would have a sort of red wave in reaction to Joe Biden.
Now
When you want, when you're looking for a high-quality pollster, you want a track record, you want them to be transparent about what they're doing, the methods by which they conduct their poll.
Um, and those methods are really important because it used to be the case that high-quality polls were live caller polls.
You know, we're calling up people, we're asking them their opinion, and all of these other polls, text messaging, what you know, email, whatever.
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