Gavin Baker
speaker
1,686 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2026
last heard 4 Aug
Gavin Baker’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.
Appearances
We talked last time about how I've been really surprised that so much of the economic returns have accrued to the frontier.
That is changing with what we're seeing with these inference clouds.
Together, modal, base 10, they're all working.
In a very cash-efficient way.
What's shocking about those business models is they're growing almost as fast as the frontier labs in the early days, but burning very little cash.
It's pretty extraordinary.
To go back to silly SaaS metrics like the rule of 40 perspective, these are crazy numbers.
Yeah, it may be that what we discussed last time where, you know, frontier tokens, like the pie is growing really, really fast.
They may continue to capture the overwhelming majority of economic value, but not all of it the way they have been.
And open source tokens might be the majority of tokens processed.
Again, going back, that's great for infrastructure demand because a token is a token.
And it takes the same amount of flops, watts, space, cooling to make.
It's the most obvious risk.
And so that was kind of one reason I was excited to be here this week.
I want to be scared, you know?
I don't want to feel like a lunatic watching these stocks get cheaper, thinking the expected forward returns are going up, while it feels like the on-the-ground fundamentals have pretty materially improved in July relative to even June.
But I still come away thinking, like, regulation, it just has to be the biggest risk.
Like, you just can't ignore New York making a data center moratorium.
We're living in this weird post-factual, post-logical political world.
I mean, I think the AI industry has done a terrible job of PR.
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