Gavin Friend

speaker

7,937 appearances 60 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 2 Sep

Gavin Friend’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 29 in all, peaking in Oct 2025 with 5.

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NAB Morning Call · Follow you, follow me · 29 Jul 2026 podcast

Yeah, CPI is probably gonna regain three percent, but not not much above that actually.

And I think that probably will have some impact on some of those, certainly the dovish members.

Um so if we get if we were gonna get an eight one, I think that would be taken favourably.

But obviously there are some people out there thinking we're gonna go six three uh actually and that'll be more hawkish.

Um we'll get new forecasts.

The inflation forecast should moderate a little bit, but the economy, the the G D P forecast should be a little bit stronger.

Yeah, so GDP for Q two in Europe and in the US.

So obviously the personal income of spending with the core PC is going to be the focus.

We know from the lower CPI and PPI numbers that that the headline in the lower oil prices, fuel prices, this is going to feed through and uh you know the expectation is for the headline down to fall by a percent uh point one percent.

The question is gonna be again on the core number.

Uh the market's looking for point two from point three.

I mean, there are a few things

Things in there like hospital services and things like that that are a little bit softer, but where the weighting uh uh in in PCEs is a little bit different from it was in CPI or PPI.

So not clear on the sort of pass-through and that kind of thing.

We'll see what it is.

Um I think the GDP number is going to be quite important.

You know, 2% uh from 2.1 in Q1.

That's you know, that's that's that's pretty good.

0.5, 0.6 a quarter, but I think the focus is going to be on the makeup of that.

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