Gavin Friend

speaker

7,937 appearances 60 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 2 Sep

Gavin Friend’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 29 in all, peaking in Oct 2025 with 5.

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NAB Morning Call · Follow you, follow me · 29 Jul 2026 podcast

And we had in Q one that very negative number, it was down point two because of the drag from the pharmaceutical sense sector in in Ireland.

That eventually will understand.

Unwind.

Um, but when we look at the Q2 numbers, we're expecting a reasonable rebound to point two is the consensus.

We think that the risks are point three actually, uh, driven by sort of things like uh construction, uh, high-tech manufacturing, strong investment, consumption's doing okay.

So actually, you know, we could get a bit of an upside surprise.

Uh, and on inflation, 2.8% at the headline uh for U.S., uh,

Eurozone, that's that's going to be coming the day after tomorrow.

But we're talking about the sort of German numbers and the other country numbers that are going to feed into this.

The European number doesn't look like it's going up at the moment.

It might be a bit dated because of what's going on in the Gulf, but actually, you know, it's it's fairly well behaved.

And if you think about inflation in the UK, in the Eurozone, in Australia, as we saw overnight, in the US, as of course for the last CPI and PPI region.

ratings, they've all come in lower because of the lower oil prices, but lower than expected again, right?

And that's the sort of common theme that's coming through.

And what you know, the question is, what does that mean to s for central banks?

Can they can they afford to be a bit more patient in looking through this?

Exactly.

Uh again, rates un unchanged at three point seven five percent.

You know, the market's going for an unchanged seven point two vote on this.

We think that the lower CPI readings we've had in the last two uh the last two months mean something, two point six percent.

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