Gavin Jackson
speaker
1,127 appearances
18 recordings
4 series
first heard May 2026
last heard 26 Jun
Gavin Jackson’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 18 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 10.
Appearances
Before I talk about just the supply-demand effects, I will talk about this idea of how prices are, in our view, obviously disconnected from fundamentals.
Where should prices be just based on storage levels?
Because all supply and demand factors actually intersect that storage.
If you look at the level of inventories right now in the OECD countries, that is the proxy for global stocks, we should be around $98 a barrel, not $70 a barrel.
If you start thinking about where inventories are, if you didn't sell the emergency stocks that you've been selling right now,
We should be somewhere around $130 something a barrel.
So there is a disconnect between what fundamentals suggest and what prices are actually doing.
And this is the nature of markets.
Markets trade on the collective perception of reality.
I get paid.
Money managers get paid to figure out, well, what is real?
And when you get gaps, those are your typical investment opportunities, right?
2011 is the one I like to reference because most people are young enough to remember 2011.
Oil went from around 103, 104 barrel down to 60 over a six-month period.
And what people were writing was that oil prices are collapsing because oil demand is collapsing, which was a lie.
Inventories were actually flat.
Oil demand was growing about a million and a quarter, a million and a half barrels year over year.
And we spent a great deal of time talking about what was happening was not a collapse in oil demand.
It was a collapse in the financial demand for oil.
So you say, well, OK, what the hell does that term mean?
Showing 661–680 of 1,127 · page 34 of 57
← Previous
Next →