Greg Ip
speaker
528 appearances
8 recordings
1 series
first heard Jan 2018
last heard Sep 2024
Greg Ip’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
And we've seen this before, like in 1966.
That's correct.
In 1966, as today, inflation had been below 2% for quite a few years.
And the unemployment rate had come down a lot to around 4%.
It was headed even lower than
And almost out of the blue, inflation shot up to above 3%, and over the next few years kept going higher and higher.
The other similarity with the 1960s is that there was a very big fiscal stimulus.
You had a tax cut in 1964, and then you had Lyndon Johnson's Vietnam War Spending and Great Society programs.
The scale of that fiscal stimulus to the economy was very similar to what people are expecting in the next few years thanks to this tax cut and a federal spending bill.
Essentially, you take an economy that's already...
running at full employment with very little slack in it, and then you throw more demand onto it, and it seems like a recipe for overheating.
That's right.
Globalization is a very powerful force against inflation because it essentially means that you as a worker or as a business owner, you thought you were only competing with folks in your own sort of city or state,
Now you're competing with people from other countries, many of them with much lower costs, much lower wages.
So that growth in globalization, the addition especially of China to the global economy, was a very powerful force holding down wages and prices.
But in the last seven or eight years, we have seen globalization stop or sort of move into reverse.
We've seen protection rising in many countries, and we are seeing that total trade volumes just aren't growing that much more quickly than total economic output.
Here in the United States, we've already seen green shoots of protectionism.
President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on washing machines, solar panels, softwood lumber.
They're considering imposing them on imports of steel and aluminum.
Showing 361–380 of 528 · page 19 of 27
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