Gregg Carlstrom

speaker

496 appearances 6 recordings 1 series first heard May 2026 last heard 21 Jul

Gregg Carlstrom’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 3.

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The Intelligence from The Economist · On the home strait? A path to peace in Iran · 15 Jun 2026 podcast

I was reminded that if you go back to April 8th, when Donald Trump announced the initial ceasefire with Iran, he said that ceasefire was subject to the complete and immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Here we are more than two months later, and the strait's still

Isn't open.

So again, I think a bit of skepticism is in order.

If America and Iran do agree on Friday to reopen the strait, the Iranians will need to remove the mines that they have put there.

It's not clear exactly how long that's going to take, but you will see the tankers that are stuck in the Gulf, I think, start to make their way for the exits pretty quickly.

You have about 60 tankers that are laden with crude oil.

Waiting to get out, they've been stranded for months, they will sail out and bring that oil to world markets.

So we should see a bit of short term relief for energy prices.

And indeed the price of oil is down about five percent since the deal was announced.

But what happens after that?

Do tankers start to come back into the Gulf as well?

Do they take the risk of doing that when this is only an interim deal and there's no guarantee that they will actually

get to a final agreement.

We don't know the answer to that yet.

So after that initial glut of oil sails out of the Gulf, I think some companies might wait to gauge whether this agreement is actually going to hold.

Probably not later this week or later this month, but at some point it's possible.

If you think about the two big events that brought us here, it was the failure of nuclear negotiations before the war between the US and Iran, and it was the protests this past winter over Iran's dire economic situation that became Donald Trump's pretext for launching the war.

Neither of those issues have been resolved.

There's still no final nuclear negotiation.

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