Gregg Carlstrom
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Podcast Appearances
So they would very much like to have some sort of a ceasefire that lifts that blockade and gets oil exports moving as well.
The Iranian calculus throughout this war has been that they can last longer, not only than Donald Trump, but than the world, because the entire world's economy is being affected by this.
And I am sure Trump is hearing an earful from American allies in Europe and Asia and elsewhere who are really suffering as a result of this energy shock.
The Americans are saying that these were Iranian vessels, small boats that were either attempting to or preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
As you said, they're arguing this was in self-defense and the Americans also saying that the ceasefire is still intact.
So the question now is, will the Iranians retaliate for that in some way?
But we've seen a few of these kinds of violations from both sides throughout the ceasefire over the past nearly two months now, and it has held up nonetheless.
I think so.
I think both sides for the moment have an interest in keeping it in place and trying to get to some sort of an agreement or at least an interim agreement, which is what they seem to be progressing towards right now.
Right.
It depends on which version of Donald Trump you're listening to on Saturday.
He said we were close to a deal on Sunday.
He said we're in no rush to make a deal and it may not happen at all.
I think they are closer to what
a letter of intent, which would be a basically 60-day extension of the ceasefire and then a broad list of principles that both America and Iran would sign on to.
So Iran would commit to suspend uranium enrichment for a period of time.
America would commit to sanctions relief and various other things.