Gregg Carlstrom

And then they would use that 60-day period to work out the details of how those principles are actually going to be implemented.

They're getting closer to that.

They still have some disagreements around immediate sanctions relief for Iran, which the Iranians are insisting on, the Americans are reluctant to do, and on Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

Those are the two big sticking points right now in the negotiation.

Well, we saw a lot of enthusiasm in energy markets when they opened on Monday morning for trading in Asia.

Brent crude opened about six percent down because of this talk.

that we might be getting close to an interim deal.

But I think the reality, if we do get to that agreement in the coming days, the reality is likely to be a bit more pessimistic.

I think even if you announce a 60-day extension of the ceasefire and both America and Iran announce that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened,

You won't immediately see oil and gas start to flow.

You need to move hundreds of tankers back to the region, some of which are now as far away as the Atlantic.

It might take them months to finish their current deliveries and then sail back to the Persian Gulf.

You need energy producers in the Gulf.

uh to restart production which has been mothballed for the past few months and and that takes time as well and then in the back of everyone's minds is the question of well what if these talks about a final agreement don't succeed what if we have a 60-day or even 90-day extension of the ceasefire but america and iran can't get to a final deal and the war resumes and that might deter some shipping companies and insurers and other commercial actors from piling back into the persian gulf

Netanyahu is in a very unhappy position right now.

He's facing an election later this year, most likely in October.

He had hoped to go into that election with a decisive victory to point to in Iran.

Instead, it looks as if Donald Trump is preparing to make a deal that, from an Israeli perspective, will not be a good deal.

It won't address Iran's missile program.

It won't address Iran's support for groups like Hezbollah.