Hannah Miao

speaker

241 appearances 5 recordings 1 series first heard Oct 2022 last heard Aug 2024

Hannah Miao’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Will the Midterm Elections Trigger a Stock-Market Rally? · 11 Oct 2022 podcast

Yes, analysts have looked at certain policy priorities for Democrats and Republicans, particularly if Democrats can maintain power after the midterm elections and control Congress.

Analysts I spoke to at Strategas anticipate lawmakers will likely focus on policy initiatives like an enhanced child tax credit and Medicaid expansion.

And that could boost consumer-focused stocks like General Mills or health care ones such as Centene.

And a Republican-controlled Congress would have a harder time passing legislation with a Democratic-controlled White House.

But analysts see energy stocks such as ConocoPhillips or defense shares such as Lockheed Martin benefiting from Republican policy priorities.

This year, the higher interest rates as a result of the Federal Reserve's interest raising campaign could actually pressure the sector.

So analysts I spoke with aren't necessarily expecting to see the similar trend this year for tech stocks.

That's because higher interest rates make future earnings less valuable.

And so that makes tech shares look even more expensive than they are given their earnings potential.

There are a number of indicators and events that are important regarding consumers and the economy as a whole.

The September consumer price index is slated to come out this Thursday, October 13th.

And the CPI is probably the most closely watched measure of inflation in the U.S.,

It aggregates prices Americans pay and how they change year over year and month over month.

And investors are watching the CPI to see if inflation is easing or staying persistently high because that could impact how the Fed changes its trajectory for interest rate increases.

That report could heavily impact the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting on November 1st and 2nd.

During that meeting, they'll decide how much to raise interest rates and other monetary policy moves.

And Chair Jerome Powell also gives a press conference after the meeting that investors listen to very closely to get some more color on the Fed's thinking.

After we get through the Fed's meeting in November, we'll also get the October jobs report on November 4th.

That provides the monthly update on hiring and unemployment to measure the health of the labor market.

So these are all really big events on the calendar that could move markets between now and the November 8th midterm elections.

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