Hannah Miao

speaker

241 appearances 5 recordings 1 series first heard Oct 2022 last heard Aug 2024

Hannah Miao’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Will the Midterm Elections Trigger a Stock-Market Rally? · 11 Oct 2022 podcast

Absolutely.

I'm happy to be here.

The trend actually goes all the way back to World War II.

The S&P 500 has moved higher in the one-year period following every midterm election since 1942.

And on average, the index has gained nearly 15% in the one-year post-midterm period.

So that's a spotless eight-decade record of rising after the midterms.

The outlook isn't as clear this year.

Investors say they're not necessarily betting on a post-midterm rally.

They're juggling a whole host of market moving factors.

First and foremost, they're concerned about the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate raising campaign in order to bring down inflation.

And with that, they're worried about an economic slowdown.

And they expect corporate earnings to weaken amid the tougher business environment, too.

So the Fed hasn't raised interest rates at this rapid of a pace since the 1980s.

And the Fed is signaling further interest rate increases into next year.

There's also a lot of concern about a potential recession.

And we've actually never had a recession begin in the third year of a presidential cycle, which is the year after the midterms.

That's according to Strategas.

Usually the reason why stocks tend to rally after midterms is because there's a removal of uncertainty about who's in power in Washington.

investors have a better sense of what kind of policymaking will go on in the coming year.

But this year, they're saying that even once they understand who will be in power in Washington, that's not going to remove a lot of uncertainty about monetary policy, which is controlled by the Fed.

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