Ian Bremmer

but the war itself between Russia and Ukraine has, at best for Russia, shifted to a stalemate.

Where the Russians are showing more advantage is that they now are manufacturing more ballistic missiles

Their drone capabilities are not what the Ukrainians are, but they're high.

And they're now launching a lot more of those record level rates and some days more than we've seen at any point in the four years of the war against Ukrainian cities.

And the Ukrainians are running low on interceptors, not on the lower tech drone responses, but interceptors for ballistic missiles, having a harder time defending their cities.

So you could imagine a situation where the Ukrainians end up taking more land back, but the Ukrainians also take more casualties, civilian casualties in cities and their own critical infrastructure becomes more damaged.

Their economy gets more hurt.

Still, I guess your big takeaways here, and this shouldn't surprise you, number one, zero incentive of Putin to negotiate a ceasefire in the near future.

And number two, zero slowdown at this point of the Ukrainians to continue to defend themselves because they no longer need quite as many troops on the front line.

And that's been the biggest vulnerability is that they've had harder time raising reserves

in a Ukrainian democracy than the Russians are that can send North Koreans, they can send mercenaries, they can send convicts, all this kind of thing.

The Ukrainians have a disadvantage there with a smaller population.

That's becoming more balanced.

Doesn't look that way.

You know that Trump, his top priority foreign policy when he became president was to end the war.

His repeated quote of 24 hours, it'll be over.

He's failed at that, and he's admitted that he's failed at that.

He's frustrated about it.

He blames the Ukrainians at least as much as the Russians, which is not analytically sound, but it does express his frustration that he doesn't have the leverage to muscle around Putin

in the way that he does with Zelensky.