James Hadfield

speaker

60 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2020 last heard Mar 2020

James Hadfield’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Health Report · Travel bans, coronavirus and intensive care, and tracking the virus · 16 Mar 2020 podcast

These viruses are sort of endemic in bat populations.

And so what that is really telling you is is absolutely nothing to do with when it jumped into the human population for this time.

So we can say that it's highly probable that this virus did live in bats, but whether it was a direct transmission from bats into the human population or whether it came

through an another animal intermediate, such as in the case of SARS, we can't say that with any confidence.

The genomic data strongly supports the seafood market as an amplification event.

We still were not completely sure about whether that was the first introduction or whether or not maybe it was around a little bit before then, but made it to the seafood market and then that really amplified the spread.

The first case or symptomatic case is dated at the very start of December, but the genomic evidence points to a origin or a zoonosis somewhere in the second half of November.

It's quite a good time for conspiracy theories at the moment.

What I can say is that all evidence is completely parsimonious with a single zoonotic event that happened in Wuhan in China.

So all of the data is completely consistent with that.

There's absolutely no data out there which would support any other theory.

Yeah, so there is absolutely divergence and by divergence what we mean here is mutation.

So just changes in the RNA genome that arise completely naturally through replication cycles.

But

That is the million dollar question.

And the golden rule of phylogenetics, which is what I study, is that if it looks like the virus is behaving differently, ninety nine percent of the time it's because of epidemiology.

There's absolutely no data yet that there are mutations out there that have any change in virulence or change in transmissibility.

You can imagine that if you were to get to a let's say a new location and you just so happen to have a mutation at that time and it spreads w rapidly in that new location, then it's gonna look like perhaps that mutation drove the spread through that city.

Whereas in actual case it's just a complete chance event that is then inherited by the spread through that city.

We know that worldwide there are thousands and thousands of cases, but we only have currently five hundred genomes.

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