James Mackintosh
speaker
379 appearances
7 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2017
last heard Nov 2024
James Mackintosh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
This is going to be one of the worst places to be.
And sure enough, ahead of previous receptions, they've acted as a little bit of a bellwether, giving you some warning that things were getting bad.
At the moment, they look fine.
A tiny bit worse, but similar to stocks, just only a little bit worse.
So that does give some support to the idea that actually the stock market is just ignoring the bad news out there, that maybe there is something rational and reasonable going on, at least at the moment, that we've had some bad news, the bad news is priced in, but so far it's not bad enough to say, well, there's definitely a recession on the way.
Yeah.
I mean, you know, these are the sorts of, in the first cut of history that we're working on, of course, it's very hard to know.
And
It may be that the stock market is once again proven to be wildly over-optimistic, just as it was in 2007, and repeatedly since.
On the other hand, it may be that the people who are panicking and buying bonds are just going way too far.
Actually, that happened in 2016.
Not quite as extreme, but there was this extreme rush for the longest-duration bonds out there in 2016.
And the people that bought them got hosed.
Thank you.
You can identify three big factors that were behind the sell-off that really started in October.
The first is the Fed.
People went from not worrying at all about the Fed to suddenly being very, very concerned about the Fed.
In part because it became obvious that the global economy was slowing.
In part because sentiment shifted.
People stopped feeling so positive and they looked for a reason to worry and the Fed gave them a good reason to worry.
Showing 181–200 of 379 · page 10 of 19
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