James Mackintosh
speaker
379 appearances
7 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2017
last heard Nov 2024
James Mackintosh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
and in part because they were also getting increasingly concerned about the Chinese trade dispute and the danger that it would turn into a full-blown trade war.
All three of those things have lifted to some extent.
So I think we can say the Fed, from the start of this year, acted as the trigger for why there was the rally when the Fed effectively retreated from the idea of hiking rates this year.
The Chinese trade dispute has been a slightly slower burn, but there's been a whole series of positive news and people are now assuming there will almost certainly be a deal or possibly an extension, but the tariffs probably won't get raised to the 25% level that was being discussed.
On the global economy, the news has not been so good.
People were panicking that it was going to be even worse.
People were thinking, God, recession's on the way.
Now they're saying, well, it's much worse than we thought, but it's not actually a recession.
So, of course, being bad but not as bad as you'd thought is a reason for stocks to go up.
Yeah.
I mean, at the moment, people are sort of moderately optimistic on there.
There's no hard science behind measuring investor sentiment.
But
There's no sense of panic among US investors.
Most of the indicators that you can measure on this, and there are lots of them, but most of them show a sort of moderate optimism, which is roughly speaking where we were last summer before the sell-off began.
And the problem is when you get extreme optimism, then it's right to have a sort of contrarian instinct and expect that that will
that will revert back towards the average that the optimism people don't stay super optimistic for too long and of course when they become less optimistic the market tends to go down so that can be a warning sign but these sorts of levels of moderate optimism don't really give you a warning sign on their own which is both good news because it means in principle the market could go up a lot from here because people can become a lot more optimistic if the right things happen but also kind of a
kind of annoying from a market watcher's point of view, because it says it's very hard to have a sense of anything other than sort of drift at the moment.
Well, we had a bit of selling last week.
The market did go down.
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