James Thompson

I mean, those alcohol consumption numbers that you referred to earlier, that's really the central problem.

It's not just an Australian trend.

It's a trend right around the world.

And so how a lot of winemakers have responded to that is through what's called premiumization and the great strategy that treasury wine estates had that they want to get out.

I'm picking round numbers here.

They want to get out of the under $10 a bottle business, and they want it to be in the over $10 a bottle business, so the more premium end of the market.

But the problem is there's so many grapes around the world, so much wine capacity, that that's infected the premium end of the market too.

So there's just too much wine in the world, too many wineries, too many grapes, too much product.

And that's brought down prices to some extent, but certainly margins for most winemakers.

It's just become a really, really tough business.

So I think that's why we've seen, you know, treasury wine estates struggle.

They had been very reliant on this trade into China, which was whacked by tariffs, and now it's been that those tariffs have sort of come off.

But it's just harder to get into the Chinese market.

The Chinese aren't spending as much on wine as they once were.

So, again, a lot of those growth corridors have been shut off.

I think even in America, you know, this push to GLP-1 drugs like Azempic and Wegovy, they've also hurt the wine business, you know.

People on those drugs don't eat as much and they don't drink as much alcohol.

And I think the estimates are around 12% of the US population is taking one of those drugs at the moment.

So everything is pushing against the wine business and it's just really hard.

Jane Herdlicker used to run Virgin Australia and Jetstar.