Janet Yellen
speaker
179 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2017
last heard Dec 2017
Janet Yellen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
However, such effects should unwind relatively quickly.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has stayed low in recent months, and at 4.4% in August, was modestly below the median of FOMC participants' estimates of its longer-run normal level.
Participation in the labor force has changed little, both recently and over the past four years.
Given the underlying downward trend in participation stemming largely from the aging of the U.S.
population, a relatively steady participation rate is a further sign of improving conditions in the labor market.
We expect that the job market will strengthen somewhat further.
Turning to inflation, the 12-month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures was 1.4% in July last year.
down noticeably from earlier in the year.
Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, has also moved lower.
For quite some time, inflation has been running below the committee's 2% longer-run objective.
However, we believe this year's shortfall in inflation primarily reflects developments that are largely unrelated to broader economic conditions.
For example, one-off reductions earlier this year in certain categories of prices, such as wireless telephone services, are currently holding down inflation, but these effects should be transitory.
Such developments are not uncommon, and as long as inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored, are not of great concern from a policy perspective because their effects fade away.
Similarly, the recent hurricane-related increases in gasoline prices will likely boost inflation, but only temporarily.
More broadly, with employment near assessments of its maximum sustainable level and the labor market continuing to strengthen, the Committee continues to expect inflation to move up and stabilize around 2 percent over the next couple of years, in line with our longer-run objective.
Nonetheless, our understanding of the forces driving inflation is imperfect, and in light of the unexpected lower inflation readings this year, the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.
As always, the Committee is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed to achieve its inflation and employment objectives over the medium term.
let me turn to the economic projections that committee participants submitted for this meeting, which now extend through 2020.
As always, participants conditioned their projections on their own individual views of appropriate monetary policy, which in turn depend on each participant's assessments of the many factors that shape the outlook.
The median projection for growth of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, or real GDP, is 2.4% this year and about 2% in 2018 and 2019.
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