Janet Yellen
speaker
179 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2017
last heard Dec 2017
Janet Yellen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
By 2020, the median growth projection moderates to 1.8%, in line with its estimated longer-run rate.
The median projection for the unemployment rate stands at 4.3%,
in the fourth quarter of this year and runs a little above 4% over the next three years, modestly below the median estimate of its longer-run normal rate.
Finally, the median inflation projection
is 1.6% this year, 1.9% next year, and 2% in 2019 and 2020.
Compared with the projections made in June, real GDP growth is a touch stronger this year, and inflation, particularly core inflation, is slightly softer this year and next.
Otherwise, the projections are little changed from June.
Returning to monetary policy, although the committee decided at this meeting to maintain its target for the federal funds rate, we continue to expect that the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases in that rate to sustain a healthy labor market and stabilize inflation around our 2% longer run objective.
That expectation is based on our view that the federal funds rate remains somewhat below its neutral level.
That is, the level that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and keeps the economy operating on an even keel.
Because the neutral rate currently appears to be quite low by historical standards,
federal funds rate would not have to rise much further to get to a neutral policy stance.
But because we also expect the neutral level of federal funds rate to rise somewhat over time, additional gradual rate hikes are likely to be appropriate over the next few years to sustain the economic expansion.
Even so, the committee continues to anticipate that the longer-run neutral level of the federal funds rate is likely to remain below levels that prevailed in previous decades.
This view is consistent with participants' projections of appropriate monetary policy.
The median projection for the federal funds rate is 1.4% at the end of this year, 2.1% at the end of next year, 2.7% at the end of 2019, and 2.9% in 2020.
Compared with the projections made in June, the median path for the federal funds rate
is essentially unchanged, although the median estimate of the longer-run normal value edged down to 2.8 percent.
As always, the economic outlook is highly uncertain, and participants will adjust their assessments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate in response to changes to their economic outlooks and views of the risks to their outlooks.
Policy is not on a preset course.
Showing 101–120 of 179 · page 6 of 9
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