Jared Bernstein

No, we can't.

It's not, it's not cheap.

Um, I think, yeah, I think if you're talking 10 years, you're in the, I think in the seven, 800 billion range.

I, I, I, I know these numbers when I'm working on that stuff, but I'm not going to, we're not going to hold it.

I think that's the range.

And, um, uh,

When we obviously when we did it, it was deficit financed.

And I don't know if you've seen any of my work on this, but I am a pretty much a lifetime fiscal dove who's lately become a bit hawkish.

I don't think we're at the breaking point, but I think we're at a level of unsustainability that is dangerously tempting a breaking point.

And it's not even clear what a breaking point is.

We have a sovereign currency that we print.

So, you know, it's not like we're going to have a list trust moment because our debt markets are so large and so liquid and we have the dominant global currency and all that in the dollar.

But the reason I flipped-

And I've written extensively about this, including a New York Times op-ed that had a graphic in it that kind of explains this, is because interest rates are higher now.

And I think the thing that people missed over all those years where they had their hair on fire is they just didn't recognize, I mean, it's kind of right in front of you, how the real interest rate was so low, even negative in some cases, that we could handily service our debt without breaking a sweat.

But now the interest rate is higher, and my priors are that it's going to stay up.

You don't know.

That's an impossible variable to forecast.

But this is, again, a hope for the best plan for the worst moment.

So I wouldn't support a full-out 10-year expenditure, $600-700 billion for an extended child tax credit, without a pay-for.