Jason Zweig

speaker

906 appearances 17 recordings 1 series first heard Jan 2018 last heard Sep 2022

Jason Zweig’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · You Can Time the Market, But There's a Catch · 17 Sep 2018 podcast

And Howard Marks tells an amazing story in his book about how in the fourth quarter of 2008, he was meeting with a pension fund manager matched

trying to persuade that person to put more money into one of Mr. Marx's funds. matched

And everything he said to the person, the pension fund manager would just say, but what if it's even worse than that? matched

And he said, by the end, he realized there was no scenario he could paint that would be dire enough to get the person to stop asking that question. matched

And that's when he realized maybe the market is getting close to bottom. matched

That's correct. matched

But most of the damage had been done. matched

And nobody, like the old saying goes, nobody leaves Las Vegas except losers and liars. matched

I mean, nobody can really precisely identify either a market top or a market bottom. matched

But matched

Assuming you're in the accumulation phase as opposed to being a retiree, as stocks go down in value, you should like them more, not less. matched

And that's true for all financial assets including bonds. matched

As they lose value, as a general rule, they become more attractive, not less because they're cheaper. matched

Of course. matched

And, you know, Mark... matched

To be honest, no market turning point is ever identifiable except in hindsight because it can turn around and then it can go right back down or right back up for that matter and have a much larger move than the one you thought marked the turning point. matched

So hindsight bias plays tricks on people because it's easy to look at what did happen and say, oh, I saw it coming when in fact nobody – not nobody but very few people saw it coming. matched

Yeah. matched

If you look back at the history of the past few decades, there have been a couple of times when there clearly were valuation extremes. matched

I mean, the first quarter of 2000 is the best example. matched

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