Jason Zweig

speaker

906 appearances 17 recordings 1 series first heard Jan 2018 last heard Sep 2022

Jason Zweig’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Protecting Your Stocks Against a Bear Market - Based on Your Age · 22 Jun 2022 podcast

You're kind of like a plane on autopilot that, you know, is basically headed for its destination and the passengers don't really have to worry that it's going to deviate off course.

Thanks for having me.

WSJ Your Money Briefing · How to Invest With Certainty in an Uncertain World · 28 Feb 2022 podcast

So you have that great advantage of being able to say to yourself, well, I think I know what might happen, but not necessarily having to change your investment portfolio based on it.

And professionals don't have that luxury.

Good to be with you, JR.

Because when you're certain about something, you're often wrong.

And that applies not just to individual investors, but to professionals as well.

And if you make a big change, a big sudden change based on something you're sure about,

and you turn out to be wrong, you will probably regret it.

Well, so it's kind of amazing the way Wall Street has amnesia.

So as recently as February 15th, enormous numbers of professional investors were convinced that

that when the Federal Reserve met in March, the Fed was going to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, by half a percentage point.

Russia invades Ukraine and bang, just like that.

Everybody decides, no, now 50 basis points is off the table.

Maybe interest rates won't go up at all, but if they do, they're not going to go up by half a percentage point.

And nobody had the sort of self-honesty to say, I was certain last week, and now I'm certain this week, and I was certain about things that were completely contradictory.

Maybe I shouldn't be so certain.

You know, all it took was one geopolitical bolt from the blue to transform most people's forecasts about an uncertain event.

And they took

one form of certainty and replaced it with another just like that.

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