Jason Zweig
speaker
906 appearances
17 recordings
1 series
first heard Jan 2018
last heard Sep 2022
Jason Zweig’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
And I think what that should tell investors is it's much better to think
in terms of probabilities and ranges of outcomes than it is to think about like a particular point, you know?
And everyone would be better off being a lot more humble about the ability of professional forecasters to call what's going to happen next.
Just look at the reversal that we saw in the stock market on Thursday.
You had both the S&P and the NASDAQ down very substantially in the late morning, even into the early afternoon.
And then there was just this huge reversal.
Because I think what people concluded was that if the Russian invasion of Ukraine slows down the world economy or keeps oil prices elevated, that will limit the flexibility of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by as much as people had expected.
And therefore...
everyone decided that we're probably in for a smaller interest rate hike in March than many people had thought.
And so if you had been bearish, you would have gotten whipsawed by that.
And all of that occurred just in the course of a few hours.
Well, so if you're a professional money manager, you get paid to make predictions and to act on them.
If you have a forecast about where the market is headed, you pretty much have to follow through on it.
If you're a small investor, you don't.
You can recognize that your view of the world might well be proven wrong and nobody's staring over your shoulder who's going to judge you
if your forecast turns out to be wrong or you don't act on it.
So you have that great advantage of being able to say to yourself, well, I think I know what might happen, but not necessarily having to change your investment portfolio based on it.
And professionals don't have that luxury.
Well, there are a couple of obvious things that investors could do under these circumstances with all this turmoil involving Russia and Ukraine.
You know, many people expect there's going to be a boom in US exports of natural gas to Europe and that inflation will rise and higher military spending will boost defense and aerospace stocks.
Showing 141–160 of 906 · page 8 of 46
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