John J. Mearsheimer

You want to understand here that we're not talking about settling the nuclear issue in these initial negotiations.

The initial negotiations that are going on now are designed to set up a real ceasefire.

In other words, we want to stop the shooting completely.

And this includes in Lebanon, right?

Stop the shooting completely.

We want to open the strait and the American blockade and the Iranian blockade.

Open the strait.

The Iranians want $24 billion in frozen assets given back to them.

Their money.

Their money.

That's three.

That's number three.

And number four is the Iranians want sanctions taken off their sale of their oil on global markets.

Okay, so those are the four things that have to happen to get a real ceasefire.

But you notice in those four elements, you see no evidence of the nuclear issue or the question of overall sanctions or reparations or control of the Strait moving forward.

All these issues will be settled in the second round.

Now, my view is that you're probably going to get a real ceasefire at some point because that will open the straits.

And opening the straits matters immensely to President Trump because of what the consequences are for the international economy.

Now, when it comes to violating that ceasefire, the country that will violate it is Israel.

But if Israel violates the ceasefire and the Iranians react by shutting down the Straits again, oh my God, we're back to the economic threat resurrecting itself.