Jonathan Armitage
speaker
132 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 1 Jul
Jonathan Armitage’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
I think we have been through these sorts of cycles, but it's probably been sort of some time since you've seen this level of dislocation.
I think you've got to go back to the sort of 1970s to look at the sort of energy level of sort of dislocation.
But some historians have suggested there are precedents back in the sort of 60s as well.
If you go back to the conflicts in the early 90s or the sort of early to mid 90s and then early 2000s, they were sort of shorter term in nature in terms of disruption.
And so some of the sort of when people are reaching back into history, I think you've got to go back quite some time and certainly still well beyond most investors' professional careers.
I think that there are a couple of areas that you can look at.
The first one is the sort of longer term impact of significant disruptions to energy supplies.
I also think that there are some sort of second and third order impacts that sort of come through from
These type of events, whether it feeds through into policy decisions, significant – one example is that if you look at the significant build-out of French nuclear power, a lot of its sort of genesis actually came from the energy crisis in the 1970s.
So there will be some areas that we can sort of reach into where you may sort of see that this may lead to a sort of reappraisal of energy supplies and the way that energy is generated.
But there will be some elements to this which are sort of somewhat unique.
I might just sort of step back a little bit and sort of put this into a bit of framework, because I think what you're seeing is some things that we've sort of focused on in terms of our own investment thinking for the last sort of three years or so, which is that you are seeing a new regime driving investment markets, more volatile inflation.
That doesn't necessarily mean that inflation is higher, but inflation moves around a lot more.
You've
whether or not that is energy in the short term, or if you look at what we've seen over the last several years around scarcity of rare earths.
You've got rising protectionism that was going on before the current American administration imposed significant tariffs.
And you've got the rollback of the globalization that sort of took place over 20, 25 years.
post-china coming into the wto and so i think you can put what you're seeing in the middle east in that sort of context this is not sort of suggesting that we could predict the conflict and certainly the way that it has unfolded but what we are seeing is likely more volatile inflation
The actions in the Middle East from both sides are producing commodity scarcity with ripple effects across the world.
And it's also, I think, tied into the impacts, certainly from politics, of populism.
Showing 61–80 of 132 · page 4 of 7
← Previous
Next →