Jonathan Berk
speaker
579 appearances
6 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 13 Aug
Jonathan Berk’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 3.
Appearances
And I'm Jonathan Burke, a finance professor at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University.
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This is the All Else Equal Podcast.
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Yeah.
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So I would say Bayesian updating is when you get new information.
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The way you incorporate that information into what you think is going to happen in the world.
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And it turns out there is one way of doing that that leads to the best outcomes.
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And we call that Bayesian updating.
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And I would say actually that Bayesian updating is perhaps one of the least intuitive branches of mathematics and one of the most difficult to understand.
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And at least in my experience.
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If I rely on my intuition, I'm usually get it wrong.
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I absolutely have to work the equations out every time.
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Yeah, so Jules, we could talk about the famous Monty Hall problem.
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You're on a game show, you win a prize if you guess
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which door the prize is behind.
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And there are three doors.
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And so the host says, You pick a door, you pick a door.
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He opens a door that does not contain the prize,
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And you then are asked, do you want to switch?
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And one more detail, the door that's being opened cannot be the door that you picked.
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Yes, it's not the door you picked and it's not the door with a prize.
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