Jonathan Berk

speaker

579 appearances 6 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 13 Aug

Jonathan Berk’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 3.

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All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions · Rerun: Ep73 “The Dangers of Group Think on Decision Making” with Adi Sunderam · 13 Aug 2026 podcast

And so most people look at this problem naively and say it's still fifty-fifty, so it doesn't make any difference. voice-verified

In fact, you are better off switching. voice-verified

The intuition is as follows. voice-verified

If the prize is behind the door you've already picked, voice-verified

then his choice is fifty-fifty. voice-verified

It's a random choice which door. voice-verified

But if the prize is not behind the door you picked, then he communicates information because he's forced to pick the door which doesn't have the prize. voice-verified

And since that event occurs two-thirds of the time, voice-verified

And the event that you behind the door occurs one third of the time, you are best to use that information. voice-verified

And that's why you're better off switching. voice-verified

But it is very unintuitive, and you have to work out the equations to realize this. voice-verified

making. voice-verified

And there are many more examples of how mistakes people make updating. voice-verified

But what we're going to talk about today, what I think is interesting about it is many of the examples of the mistakes people made have difficulty actually explaining modern behavior. voice-verified

You know, we see echo chambers, you know, somebody will believe that, I don't know, uh Kennedy was killed by the CIA, for example, some crazy notion like that. voice-verified

And when they get evidence to the contrary, it makes them more likely to believe, not less. voice-verified

And when we see this behavior, that's really not explained by the common mistakes people make. voice-verified

And so the question is, what explains that behavior? voice-verified

Yeah, so basically, for whatever reason, I would say computational, you can't think of every possibility, you make a subset of possibilities and assume that nothing else could happen. voice-verified

You rule out explanations of the world. voice-verified

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