Jonathan Berk

speaker

579 appearances 6 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 13 Aug

Jonathan Berk’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

Trend

recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 3.

Appearances

newest first · ▶ plays the moment

All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions · Rerun: Ep73 “The Dangers of Group Think on Decision Making” with Adi Sunderam · 13 Aug 2026 podcast

A priori. voice-verified

And then you are a perfect base in. voice-verified

Given what the explanations that are available, you then interpret new data. voice-verified

And so the problem with that, of course, is that if you've left out the truth as data comes in, confirming the truth, but you've decided the truth is impossible. voice-verified

You're in forced in your set to give higher and higher probability to more and more unlikely explanations. voice-verified

You know, a good example of this kind of behavior is the COVID virus. voice-verified

So very early on, it was decided it was impossible that it could come from a Chinese lair. voice-verified

So what that meant was, as the evidence accumulated that there was something very strange about this virus, you know, that there was a splice in this virus that nobody could make any sense of. voice-verified

You needed more and more ludicrous explanations of how in nature death splice could have happened. voice-verified

Right. voice-verified

So we have found out about pangolins and, you know, various different creatures that somehow or other this virus got to Wu-Had and markets that people traded this stuff in, and it became more and more ludicrous. voice-verified

But that was b uh consequence if you couldn't consider the likely explanation. voice-verified

So Jules, why don't we introduce our guest and talk about the work that he's doing on the subject? voice-verified

Thanks for having me. voice-verified

So Adi, let me start with a very general question. voice-verified

What does your model say? voice-verified

I mean, a more typical or a common model of irrationality would be say something like, well, people just don't base an update. voice-verified

You're coming this from a different angle. voice-verified

You're saying, no, no. voice-verified

They're basing updating. voice-verified

Showing 41–60 of 579 · page 3 of 29