Jonathan Berk

speaker

579 appearances 6 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 13 Aug

Jonathan Berk’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 3.

Appearances

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All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions · Rerun: Ep73 “The Dangers of Group Think on Decision Making” with Adi Sunderam · 13 Aug 2026 podcast

They're just limiting the set of possibilities to a small set. voice-verified

Yes. voice-verified

So voice-verified

How would you a differentiate those two models? voice-verified

And B, do you have any evidence that in fact your way of looking at the world better explains people's behaviour? voice-verified

And then C, I assume you do have some sense of that, is there any intervention you could think of to help with this issue? voice-verified

Well, I want you to get the third part of my question, but before you get there, just the intuition, and correct me again if I'm wrong, but the intuition goes is something like this. voice-verified

An event occurs because the person has a closed set of possibilities about the world, what you would call models, the most likely model given that event is not in their set. voice-verified

So then they have to look within their set. voice-verified

For an explanation. voice-verified

They get forced to do that, they're Bayesians, right? voice-verified

Yep. voice-verified

So what they then say is a very unlikely event has occurred, because that's the only possibility, right? voice-verified

And then they will say, Well, and so that explains it's just some unlikely event that a full Bayesian would look and say, No, no, no, there's a much more likely explanation. voice-verified

It's just you haven't thought about it. voice-verified

That's the essence. voice-verified

That's the essence, yeah. voice-verified

I can give you an analogy. voice-verified

As you know, I like to ski. voice-verified

And then I can remember an incident in very deep powder where what happens is you fall and you can lose a ski because it's buried in the powder, right? voice-verified

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