Jonathan Berk

speaker

579 appearances 6 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 13 Aug

Jonathan Berk’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 3.

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So now you have to search for the skis. voice-verified

And if you search for like half an hour, and in a half an hour, you're searching in all the obvious places and there's no ski. voice-verified

And then I at that point turned right and said, Look. voice-verified

By definition, this ski has to be in a low probability place because we've checked the high probability place. voice-verified

So now let's look at all the low, it's all gonna be a crazy explanation, but it has to be one of those, right? voice-verified

And so then we did that and we found it in a low probability place. voice-verified

What I think you're saying is this is repeat that whole thing, but let's say I only look in half of the high probability cases. voice-verified

Yeah, exactly. voice-verified

And I've checked all half the other half. voice-verified

I ignore the other high probability. voice-verified

I'm still gonna at that point say it has to be in a low probability place and then start searching in the low probability place. voice-verified

Right? voice-verified

Yes. voice-verified

It's just that I've made the mistake of not checking some high probability places. voice-verified

Exactly So again, so let's go to part C of the problem, which is is there obviously it's suboptimal for you people behave this way. voice-verified

Are there any particular interventions people could do to not engage in this baby? voice-verified

And let me preface it by saying Bayesian updating is hugely computationally intensive. voice-verified

So most of us don't actually do it, I'm sure. voice-verified

We have some rule of thumb to make it simpler. voice-verified

And one rule of thumb is don't consider everything. voice-verified

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