Jonathan McMenamin

speaker

81 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 24 Jun

Jonathan McMenamin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.

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FEAR & GREED | Business News · Q+A: We're in a house price downturn. How bad could it get? · 24 Jun 2026 podcast

The top tier of the market will drive the downturn.

We think in Sydney and Melbourne, you'll see a peak to trough decline of around that 7% mark.

And you will see larger declines in the top tier market.

But on the other side, we'll see when we do get to a recovery phase, we're more than likely going to see that recovery be again led by that top tier of the market.

And that has played out over many cycles prior to this one.

Yeah, so it is our base case that we'll get at least one more rate hike.

And the reason that we think that will happen is that we just see inflation proving more persistent than the RBA has in their own forecasts, particularly come towards the back end of the year.

We are seeing more broadly that the economy continues to operate better.

with limited supply.

And of course, we were expected to get a larger wage rise from the 1st of July as well, which we think will spread across the broader economy.

And we're also seeing construction costs continuing to rise.

So these are all the things that are kind of driving us to think that we'll see more persistence in inflation.

We think the bank will probably have to do one more rate hike to get things back under control.

And the point of that rate hike is to slow the broader economy.

It is to slow the housing market.

And unfortunately in Australia, because of our variable rate mortgage structure,

This is one of the most powerful pass-throughs that the RBA has at their disposal is to affect the housing market for that to flow downstream to the building sector and that to flow downstream to the broader economy.

And so we should expect this downturn to persist for a little while.

We'd say that it'll probably push in towards the back end of this year.

And on the other side of it, hopefully it means that we get inflation back to target and we can eventually get a series of rate cuts, which of course will be supportive of house prices on the other side.

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