Joshua Roberts
speaker
181 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 26 Aug
Joshua Roberts’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Markets don't just move based on the news that's happened.
They move based on what people are already expecting.
Say tomorrow, there's a great jobs announcement, but everybody was already expecting that.
Well, the news has already been priced into shares today.
So I might see tomorrow's news, think our stocks are going to go up.
But, you know, the economy added 100,000 jobs.
People expected it was going to add 150,000 jobs.
People are actually quite disappointed.
So it's quite hard to work out the direction.
And our participants here were not great at guessing directions.
They got them right only about 51% of the time.
So that tells you something of why they did badly.
Even worse than this, though, is how they sized their bets.
This turns out to be one of the hardest things to do in trading and investment.
You want to be able to work out how confident you are in the move you're taking, and you want to be able to size your bet appropriately, right?
If you just think markets might go up tomorrow, you probably either wouldn't bet or you might bet a very small amount.
If you feel really confident this is definitely going to be an upward move, you should be able to take account of that and bet more.
But what they found in this experiment is that people are very bad at doing that.
They didn't size their bets according to how confident they were.
And even when there was news they were shown that made it really, really likely that they had got their bet right, they didn't increase the size of their bets.
Showing 121–140 of 181 · page 7 of 10
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