Joshua Roberts
speaker
181 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 26 Aug
Joshua Roberts’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Conversely, people took far too much risk and multiplied bets far too many times when they weren't very sure.
And that's what led to people going bust.
There's another surprising element of this experiment, which is they then repeated it with artificial intelligence models.
And even the artificial intelligence models did badly.
They were a little bit better than humans at guessing the direction of markets.
They got that about 60% of the time.
But they were pretty much as bad at sizing their bets correctly.
Even the machines who are supposed to be our future overlords took way too much risk, didn't really calibrate their bets according to how confident they were.
And some of them lost money as well.
Well, we might take some comfort from the fact that the professionals actually are quite good at this.
Macro traders who bet on the things that we've been talking about, you know, direction of stocks and bonds based on economic and political trends.
The researchers at Elm Wealth recruited five expert macro traders and gave them the same test.
As you might expect, they did rather well.
All five of them finished with profits.
On average, they over doubled their money.
And actually, the crucial distinction between them, the AI models, and the lay participants, let's call them, was not that they were loads better at predicting directions, although they were a bit better at predicting directions.
It was they changed their investment sizing massively according to their confidence.
On some days, they chose not to bet at all.
On days, they felt very confident.
They chose to massively ramp up the leverage of their bet, and it worked out very well for them.
Showing 141–160 of 181 · page 8 of 10
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