Joshua Roberts

speaker

171 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 27 Jul

Joshua Roberts’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

Trend

recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

Appearances

newest first · ▶ plays the moment

The Intelligence from The Economist · Cockroaches 1, Modi 0: India’s remarkable protests · 27 Jul 2026 podcast

And they recruited some participants and they showed each participant for each of 15 trading days tomorrow's headline.

Then

What you get to do is buy or sell stocks, you can buy or sell bonds.

And they gave each participant leverage to do this with.

So you could multiply your bet by up to 50 times.

This is the sort of bet that hedge funds actually get to place in real life.

At the end of the trading day, based on the actual market moves from that historical trading day, your trade gets closed out, and we do that 50 times.

Now, each participant was given $50 to start with, and you might think that they made loads and loads of money, but actually, only about half of them ended up with more money than they started.

One in six went completely bust, they lost everything.

And the average return was very small.

The average person

And ended up finishing with about fifty-one dollars.

So despite the crystal ball.

They didn't do great.

One of the things is that even with tomorrow's news, it's surprisingly hard to guess the direction markets are going to move in.

Markets don't just move based on the news that's happened.

They move based on what people are already expecting.

Say tomorrow there's a great jobs announcement, but everybody was already expecting that.

Well, the news has already been priced into shares today, so I might see tomorrow's news think our stocks are going to go up.

But you know, the economy added 100,000 jobs, people expected it was going to add 150,000 jobs.

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