Joshua Roberts
speaker
171 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 27 Jul
Joshua Roberts’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
People are actually quite disappointed.
So it's quite hard.
To work out the direction.
And our participants here were not great at guessing directions.
They got them right only about 51% of the time.
So that tells you something of why they did badly.
Even worse than this, though, is how they sized their bets.
This turns out to be one of the hardest things to do in trading and investment.
You want to be able to work out how confident you are in the move you're taking, and you want to be able to size your bet appropriately, right?
If you just think markets might go up tomorrow, you probably either wouldn't bet or you might bet a very small amount.
If you feel really confident, this is definitely going to be an upward move, you should be able to take account of that and bet more.
But what they found in this experiment is that people are very bad at doing.
They didn't size their bets according to how confident they were.
And even when there was news they were shown that made it really, really likely that they had got their bet right, they didn't increase the size of their bets.
Conversely, people took far too much risk and multiplied bets far too many times when they weren't very sure and that's what led to people going bust.
There's another surprising element of this experiment, which is they then repeated it with artificial intelligence models.
And even the artificial intelligence models did badly.
They were a little bit better than humans at guessing the direction of markets.
They got that about 60% of the time.
But they were pretty much as bad at sizing their bets correctly.
Showing 41–60 of 171 · page 3 of 9
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