Joshua Roberts
speaker
171 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 27 Jul
Joshua Roberts’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Even the machines who are supposed to be our future overlords.
Took way too much risk, didn't really calibrate their bets according to how confident they were, and some of them lost money as well.
Well, we might take some comfort from the fact that the professionals actually are quite good at this.
Macro traders who bet on the things that we've been talking about, you know, direction of stocks and bonds based on economic and political trends.
The researchers at Elmwealth recruited five expert macro traders and gave them the same test.
As you might expect, they did rather well.
All five of them finished with profits.
On average, they over doubled their money.
And actually, the crucial distinction between
Between them, the AI models, and the lay participants, let's call them, was not that they were loads better at predicting directions, although they were a bit better at predicting directions.
It was they changed their investment sizing massively according to their confidence.
On some days they chose not to bet at all, on days they felt very confident, they chose to massively ramp up the leverage of their bet, and it worked out very well for them.
So we can take some comfort from the fact that the people who do
do this day in, day out in Wall Street in the city of London, actually are quite good at it.
Markets can be both rational.
And completely wrong.
And what I mean by that is it may well be that markets aren't brilliant at predicting how much a company's going to earn in the future, how much the economy is going to grow in the future.
But if I'm a participant in markets, I might not actually care about whether the prediction is accurate.
I might just care about making money.
So if I know that the market might incorrectly predict the future, but I think it's going to move in a certain direction.
Showing 61–80 of 171 · page 4 of 9
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