Jules van Binsbergen

speaker

478 appearances 6 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 13 Aug

Jules van Binsbergen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 3.

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All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions · Rerun: Ep73 “The Dangers of Group Think on Decision Making” with Adi Sunderam · 13 Aug 2026 podcast

Addie, welcome to the show. matched

So Ani, there are a whole bunch of reasons for why in the end in the data we might observe this sort of thing, right? matched

So it could be that it's just easier to not have all of these different scenarios in our heads and it's just way too complicated to be a true Bayesian and to have all of these different models and therefore I converge to one. matched

Another one is, you know, I was raised in a family and they've always told me that particular model that always was discussed at the dinner table. matched

Well, there is the possibility that being surrounded by people in my social network that share that reality and everybody confirms each other in that reality. matched

What is sort of the prevalent preference or reason for why you think people end up modeling things this way in their head? matched

Yeah, although although Adi, from what I heard you say earlier, I think to some extent you can also model this is that people are willing to really morph the data observation into a different data observation, right? matched

If you're saying, yeah, the inflation number was high, but the inflation number wasn't really the inflation number. matched

It was just something else that made that observation have noise in it, or therefore I don't have to take the data point as seriously as I matched

usually would have because I'm just saying there's something wrong with the data in some sense. matched

Those two are isomorphic, aren't they? matched

I think you're a huge exception. matched

And the reason why I think you're a huge exception is that matched

One thing that I always find very curious about being a professor and also about students is that the moment that a student or professor understands something, you cannot imagine a world anymore where you have not understood it. matched

And you immediately re update backwards this as if you've always understood this. matched

And the best way in which we see this is that we immediately find everybody who doesn't understand this an idiot. matched

Even though five minutes ago we were part of that group and yet we are in no way willing to admit that. matched

So I'm worried that when you're saying, you know, let me go back and see whether I would ever have entertained that. matched

I think that once people are entertaining it, it's very hard to put themselves in the position of a person who didn't entertain that. matched

And secondly, you know, I I like the micro decision maker point of view, but maybe we can broaden also. matched

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