Jules van Binsbergen

speaker

478 appearances 6 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 13 Aug

Jules van Binsbergen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 3.

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All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions · Rerun: Ep73 “The Dangers of Group Think on Decision Making” with Adi Sunderam · 13 Aug 2026 podcast

The discussion to say within a firm, we have a larger organization with a lot of different decision makers. matched

And by the way, I think the phenomenon that you describe happens all the time, right? matched

We have a medical company, we make it very clear that we have staged investment processes where we beforehand say if this benchmark isn't hit, then we should definitely do this or that. matched

Then the benchmark isn't hit, and then everybody comes up with a reason for why. matched

Why the reason why we didn't hit the benchmark didn't really have anything to do with the fact that our company is just not doing well. matched

We attributed to some external force, we reinterpret the data and we continue with our investment. matched

And obviously this can really destroy a lot of value for companies. matched

And I think it does all the time because people are so stubborn in sticking with the belief systems that they collectively have. matched

So as an organization, do you think that there are institutions that you can put into matched

So I think that social media is very special in the following way. matched

People are generally bad at understanding selection effects. matched

And so in this particular case, the information that you're fed and the opinions that you hear from others, and they're so carefully selected to already coincide with your own that you're going to have your own beliefs confirmed and you attach value to that. matched

And so as a Bayesian updater matched

If you knew that those people had been pre-selected to only agree with you from a huge set of people with opinions that potentially could not agree with you, you should not put any weight on those additional opinions because they're not representative at all for the cross-sectional distribution of opinions. matched

But now, if you overweight that you just get further and further confirmed. matched

So I think that pre-selecting these audiences that way, even for a perfectly Bayesian updater who just does matched

Well, Adi, if I hear any other interpretation of what's going on, I will ignore it because I really like what you just proposed. matched

All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions · Rerun: Ep69 “The Science Behind Why We Don’t Just Say What We Mean” with Psychologist Steven Pinker - Part 2 · 29 Jul 2026 podcast

Welcome to the Lauder Institute at the University of Pennsylvania.

I'm Jules van Binsbergen, Director of the Institute and a finance professor at the Wharton School.

Welcome back, everybody.

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