Jules van Binsbergen

speaker

478 appearances 6 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 13 Aug

Jules van Binsbergen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 3.

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All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions · Rerun: Ep69 “The Science Behind Why We Don’t Just Say What We Mean” with Psychologist Steven Pinker - Part 2 · 29 Jul 2026 podcast

And you know that they know this information.

Because they're not doing anything, you can infer that there must be at least one more, given the fact that you see that there are 10 people at the table that don't have it.

It must be you.

And therefore, after clinging the glass twice, the two people at the table will remove the spinach.

And now we can just go iteratively forward with the same logic to cleaning the glass three times.

But even if we had done the example with that there are 10 people with spinach at your teeth, it would still work by cleaning the glass 10 times.

Now, obviously, for most people, without really carefully thinking this through, particularly if we go to level three, four, or five, I think it becomes pretty difficult for people to do this.

Yeah, so you're describing a situation where you're stopped by the police officer and you're thinking about essentially bribing the police officer, but you also know that you don't want to make it too obvious that you're bribing the police officer, because if you make it too obvious, then that might get you in trouble.

And so, indeed, I think that humans have this innate ability to make this vague, right?

That's the situation you're describing.

Yeah, exactly.

And so I think that this is a form of plausible deniability, right?

Where you want to make sure that you have a way out in case the police officer is the honest type.

And you can say, I was not bribing you.

I was just asking you for a piece of information because I just didn't know what the arrangement in this country looks like.

Absolutely.

Yes, I think that's a great idea, Jonathan.

So actually, one of my students today in investment management class, I discussed your book today in my investment management class, Stephen, believe it or not.

But one of the students made an astute observation, which I thought was interesting, which is that when it comes to insider trading law, if you put together a piece of inside information through what's called the mosaic effect or mosaic theory, which means that there's a lot of small pieces of information that you combine to put the puzzle together, that actually may not be covered under insider trading law.

So if you take your example in the book of Cheryl's birthday, where both parties know only a very partial piece of information, and by knowing what the other knows, they can figure out that her birthday is July 16th, I believe the date was, then if you put it together yourself, it's not covered, or as if you were communicating the information upfront in some illegal manner, then it would be insider trading.

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