Kevin McConway

speaker
100 appearances 3 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2011 last heard Mar 2015

Kevin McConway’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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What they may be looking back to is two seasons ago, the 12-13 season, when they were awarded 11 penalties, which is really a heck of a lot.
And if you go back another three seasons before that to 9-10, they were awarded 12 penalties.
Last season, they were awarded seven.
If you go back further than that, well, they didn't do so well.
They only got two in the 2008-9 season.
But generally, I mean, that's the lowest they've ever had is two over the period that I looked at.
So,
two so far this season.
If they don't get any more, that is historically low.
But there's another kind of feature that comes in here.
If a team gets a high number of penalties or a high count of anything in a particular season, a phenomenon known as regression to the mean says the way random variability works is that they would be likely to get fewer the next season.
And that's partly because it's much more difficult to increase the number of penalties you get above this high number you already got.
It's much more likely that that high number was to some extent a fluke and therefore the next season it'll come down again.
In this season so far, across the whole league, there's about one penalty every five games.
If you go back to 2009-10, it was about one penalty every three and a half games.
There were just many more of them.
Now, I know Chelsea have been complaining about the way refereeing works and that it doesn't favour them enough or there's prejudice and so on.
I really don't want to go into that.
But it does seem to be true that
Overall, across the league, fewer penalties are being awarded than has been the case if you go back a few seasons.
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