Krystal Ball

Thank you.

Right.

But they would say they would say that we're not even allowed to have that.

Well, let's say we're not going to do that.

Let's say what is an example of a prediction market which is supposed to resolve better than opinions?

I would say politics is definitely another one.

Usually oil futures, sophisticated derivatives and all of that.

And they're like, well, it's just an option to be able to trade derivatives without trading derivatives.

Why?

Why is that good?

Can anyone tell me that?

This is what happened more recently.

Everything about their pitch is a deeply libertarian democratization of finance, which sounds good on paper, which is bad in practice.

So the day trading thing, for example.

Recently, the Trump administration removed a $25,000 cash limit that you have to have on hand to be able to place more than five trades in a day.

A lot of retail day traders said, great, thank you for democratizing day trading.

Let's look at the data.

The absolute vast majority of consumer day traders will get wiped out within two to three months.

That's empirical.

You can actually go and look at that.