Laurence Allan
speaker
97 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 4 Jul
Laurence Allan’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
One, we haven't yet mentioned the US midterms, which are always material.
I'm not gonna dwell on that.
I'm sure everyone has their views.
In terms of elections, we also have Brazilian presidential elections coming up in October this year.
That's very meaningful for a number of reasons.
It's a major agricultural exporter.
It is a uh a locus of critical minerals, it's a major market, it's an anchor for Latin America.
And so
keeping a very close eye on that, see how that's going to play out in twenty twenty seven.
And the third one is just to refer back again to El Nino impact.
And we're thinking about that in terms of the violent risk, the political risk, the economic risk, because it's global and it can manifest in so many different ways.
So we're tracking this from a kind of local level to look for the indicators that tell us it's having an impact and what that impact might be.
I think in a thematic way, we're going to be looking at conflict indicators, especially movement towards meaningful resolution of conflicts are having a global impact right now.
So obviously the Iran wider Middle East conflict situation and also the Russia Ukraine situation because that could start us moving towards a slightly more predictable environment.
But over and above that could have some specific outcomes such as changes to the sanctions regimes and also potential reconstruction opportunities.
So that'd be the one at a kind of thematic level that I would identify.
It's a fundamental question.
I'm gonna echo Eric's last comment about here, it's a very complex matrix, right?
I'm not sure that there's one clear answer to this because arguably we've been in that world for quite a long time now where political alignments have been having a very significant impact on markets and market prices.
And the relationship between market prices and political alignment uh has always been complicated.
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