Laurence Allan
speaker
97 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 4 Jul
Laurence Allan’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And often critical in both directions, right?
I mean, there's a long list of examples where, for example, governments have been forced to change TAC or lost power because of market conditions.
And the same is true vice versa, that political conditions have shaped markets critically in many ways.
And some of the political alignments that we've become familiar with over the last couple of years, Russia-China being pushed closer has had market impacts.
Is also a political alignment.
Again, mainland China and Eastern and Southern Africa.
Europe treading this kind of incredibly fine line between the US and mainland China, which is partly about market conditions, it's partly about political conditions, and maybe partly US tariff strategy and US Israel alliance have both significantly impacted markets recently.
And equally the markets are impacting those political dynamics.
Clearly, there are more or less dominant countries, governments, and other entities in terms of resource endowment, in terms of financing, of processing capacity, for example, whose alignments are shaped increasingly by the widening range of what we now consider critical resources by some of the
complexities in supply chain security and logistics, which Eric has just spoken about, and both Eric and Ken have pointed towards some of the kind of interrelationship between general economic conditions, the geopolitics and some of these other issues I've just flagged.
There are, of course, over the last couple of years and moving forward over the next kind of year, two years, a number of dynamics that to us we assess as continuing that trend will continue in the balance towards political alignments that, if we like had its inflection point when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, we expect that trend to continue in the next couple of years, but more widely.
Globally, we think this trend will continue.
And part of the reason for that is because of this kind of global spread of national security doctrine, if you like, into an increasingly wide and complicated range of areas of the economy.
And given what we see in terms of major-level conflicts and trade conflicts and other elements, what we're now all calling geopolitics, we see
So again, not a particularly happy picture, but as with all other assessments, there are potential areas of opportunity in that.
Well, much clearly here depends on how effective a potential resolution to the conflicts in Iran, how that shapes up.
At the moment we're assessing that if the MOU is actually implemented, the MOU that's been spoken about this morning is supposed to be going into implementation on Friday.
If that is implemented over the next couple of months we're gonna see for sure a reduction in in shipping risks through the Strait of Ormuzra.
Right.
We'll move to a severe level down from the extreme levels that we've been assessing since the start of the war.
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