Laurence Allan
speaker
97 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 4 Jul
Laurence Allan’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And that will particularly be good news, obviously, for tankers and merchant vessels.
Around the kind of more structural question, the more central question that sits behind a lot of this, which is what is going to happen on Iran's nuclear programme, there's still a number of big questions that need to be answered as to how
effectively the parties can negotiate to get to a place where this is not just going to escalate again quickly.
So obviously we're keeping a very close eye on that because we'd really expect to need some sort of more stable agreement around Iran's nuclear developments to give us some level of confidence that some of the insecurity we see in the region is, if not permanently, at least in the slight or longer term, a
In terms of the kind of the real kind of macro level, if we think about the way that the US, mainland China, and the EU interrelate, there are clearly difficulties between each of these three big players.
The difficulties between mainland China and the US are very well known.
For the Europeans, the EU, and particularly concerns over mainland Chinese manufacturing capacity, market access, for example, for autos, for pharma.
Is a major fault line.
But on the other side, we see that the completion of the US-EU trade deal, which is now signed off, brings more predictability to that trading relationship.
So these three big blocks are in tension with each other.
Inside that, there are a whole stream of different bilateral issues that complicate matters for all three.
That picture looks set to remain.
Fairly stable in that regard over the next uh 12 months, but with some improvement on the USEU side because of the trade deal.
Stepping further away, just want to raise the point about how physical infrastructure and the support for that can change things over the next couple of years.
And just two kind of examples in particular: one, the development of the Lobito Corridor, so the rail line out from the DRC's
mineral reserves in southern Africa coming out at the Atlantic, which will be a major boost both to DRC economy to the aspirations of the US, EU and other partners to get better predictability in supplies of cobalt and copper, among other things.
And then on the other side of the world, on the west coast of Latin America, the Chancai megaport in Peru, which is cut shipping
times for containers down from forty days to twenty four, twenty-five days.
That is a Chinese financed project and is I think if you take these two things together, you can see the physical infrastructure aspect of this competition is shifting the picture over the long term as well.
I think the the way that we're thinking about this is what are the lessons learned from Russia Ukraine, from the Red Sea and from the Iran conflict, right?
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