Laurence Allan
speaker
97 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 4 Jul
Laurence Allan’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
We can put these into three broad categories.
One, that technology is lowering the entry barriers for a wider range of act actors to access pretty advanced military capabilities.
Two, the war in Ukraine shows just how quickly new tech like drones can evolve and reshape warfare tactics and quickly become a factor elsewhere, because we've seen very strong evidence of that in the Iran conflict over the last few months on both sides.
And that these technologies are now spreading, have already started to spread, and are now spreading more beyond.
beyond states to non-state actors, for example, criminal networks or militias.
And that is further shifting these kind of power asymmetries that we refer to.
At some examples of that we see criminal and other non-state armed groups, for example, in Colombia, using drones not just for surveillance in the way that they used to do, but now actually for conflict purposes on the battlefield.
In Mexico, we know that the new generation Jalisco cartel have got access to and have been using drones.
And in the Sah Al-Qaeda linked
Sejihadi non-state armed groups have been using this type of technology as well.
In particular, that's of interest to us over the kind of slightly longer run because this is in a region which, of course, is endowed with a lot of natural resources.
We've got lithium in Mali, we have uranium in Niger, amongst other things.
So all of these factors create a far more complex and persistent and in fact
Volatile threat environment.
In terms of indicators, we're looking very consistently at the first use of any new UAV tech in any of these hotspots to indicate improved capabilities for these groups, but also potentially expansion of their areas of influence.
So, for example, in the Sahel, if we see an uptick or a an upgrading capability, we would expect that to be followed by potential expansion.
Of their areas of operation.
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