Luke Tryl

speaker

394 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2026 last heard 6d ago

Luke Tryl’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 2.

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The News Agents · After the Reform scandal - does anyone still trust pollsters? · 18 Sep 2026 podcast

There is safety in numbers.

What you will do is if you have an outlier poll, you will look at it and you will want to make sure that you have stress tested.

And I think the Ann Seltzer example is just, I feel so bad for her because, I mean, not only,

In general elections, in presidential elections, she was really good at primaries too, which is really American primaries, as we've seen this season, are really hard to poll.

And then one wrong poll and everything goes wrong.

I think one of the specifics actually for Ann Seltzer is that she is a big fan of what is called just getting a really good sample and leaving it and not touching it.

Whereas most pollsters now weight quite aggressively.

you extrapolate.

Exactly that.

And, you know, so, you know, I think all UK pollsters use quite a few weights to make sure, because, you know, you won't get enough non-voters very often in polling.

You know, in the US, education has become, they weren't getting enough graduates, so you would weight some up.

There's a danger to weighting up, though, because what if the white, non-college educated Kamala supporter is unusual and you're timesing them by seven in the polls?

You've got to have weight caps.

And Seltzer was the other way.

She's a big fan of just get a good sample, leave it alone.

And I think that was actually the undoing in that particular poll.

Amazing.

was

Yeah, it was.

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