Luke Tryl

speaker

394 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2026 last heard 6d ago

Luke Tryl’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 2.

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The News Agents · After the Reform scandal - does anyone still trust pollsters? · 18 Sep 2026 podcast

Actually, you know, lots of the Gibb-Gove agenda poll terribly, and yet the government still did it.

And I think you get yourself into a very dangerous place if you start using polls as a GPS rather than a marker of where people are.

I don't think so I mean

Where I worry is that in the coming election, we've been doing some work looking at tactical voting.

And regardless of what comes to pass, I think that tactical voting will play an outsized role in the next election.

I think that then puts a premium on pollsters, particularly when you're doing constituency level models, you know, getting it right.

Because if you put out something which says the stop reform candidate in X seat is the Greens, and in fact it's Labour that could allow reform, or the stop Labour candidate is reform or the Tories, getting that wrong in an era of tactical voting is,

On the flip side, without it, voters might be left thinking, OK, I really want to stop Labour.

I really want to stop reform.

I don't know who the best choice is.

So I still think it's net good, but it places an even greater premium on us having confidence in the results.

Yeah, so that was our MRP, our final MRP.

So the exit poll, yeah, it's something different because you're literally, and, you know, John Curtis and his team are, you know, hey, they've got this down to a T, right?

You know, they know the individual ballot boxes where they go and survey people.

And even at the last election, in the era of much more multi-party politics, you know, they got it pretty close to being spot on.

It was a bit of over-exaggeration of reform.

But, you know, he and his team do a fantastic job there.

And, you know, I think we're lucky to have exit polling, which is so good, because, of course, we've seen exit polling in lots of other countries where it's been wide of the mark.

And what does that then do is it often then creates distrust with the losing side because they were like, oh, but in the exit poll, we were ahead.

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