Luke Tryl

speaker

394 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2026 last heard 6d ago

Luke Tryl’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 2.

Appearances

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The News Agents · After the Reform scandal - does anyone still trust pollsters? · 18 Sep 2026 podcast

Yeah, it is really difficult.

So, yeah, again, on top of are you getting the right sample?

Are you weighting it correctly?

Are people telling you the truth?

Again, it's another layer that you've got to get right.

I think sometimes there are some interesting sort of experimental ways of doing it.

One is saying to people, how are your neighbours voting?

Or who do you think will win?

So Martin Boone at DeltaPoll has done some stuff on wisdom of the crowds, which is really interesting, shows that that can often be very predictive.

So am I more

who I think?

Yeah, it seems that way.

But there is a problem across polling, and I think we are all conscious of it, and it happened at the last election in 2024, certainly happened 2015 here, obviously go back to 1992, which led to a big...

Or actually, go back

because that

equivalent, where,

Across, and there was a paper which has come out on this recently, if listeners are interested, by amongst others, Will Jennings, who is a fantastic academic who looks at this stuff.

Basically, one of the biggest challenges is polls tend to understate the right.

And that is that seems to be pretty consistent.

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