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Mark Dubowitz

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
2039 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

I just want your listeners to understand what these sunsets are.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

Essentially, the restrictions that are placed on Iran's nuclear program, and there's some really serious restrictions placed on it, especially in the short term.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

And Scott's right.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

The enriched material has to be shipped out, not to the French, but to the Russians, and

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

And there's restrictions on Iran's ability to operate these facilities in Atanz and Fordow.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

They're not closed.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

They still remain open, but there are restrictions on what they can do with it.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

There's also restrictions on Iran's ability to test and install advanced centrifuges.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

Now, the reason you'd want an advanced centrifuge rather than the first generation centrifuge that AQ Khan, the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb, gave to the Iranians is you need a smaller number of these centrifuges to produce weapons grade uranium.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

If it's smaller, Lex, it's easier to hide, right?

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

You can put it in...

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

clandestine facilities without this large enrichment centrifuge footprint.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

So there's restrictions on these advanced centrifuge R&D.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

And Iran gets significant sanctions relief as part of this.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

But the whole assumption here

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

from both an Iranian and American perspective is these restrictions are going to sunset.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

They're going to disappear over time.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

In fact, 2025 is the year where some of the significant restrictions on Iran's capabilities begin to sunset.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

And all of them are effectively gone by 2031.

Lex Fridman Podcast
#473 โ€“ Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East

So in 2031, Iran can emerge with an industrial size enrichment capability.