Mark Halperin

So I want to see what happens in August.

I want to see how each of them does right on the ballot altogether.

But I don't think I'll ever make her the favorite.

It doesn't mean she can't win, but he's an incumbent Republican in the red state.

And then lastly, Texas, that's the race that's gotten the most attention.

The Democrats are set.

They nominated James Tallarico, state representative.

You all know him because you've seen him on TV.

He's just a media darling.

uh it's said to be a moderate uh but he's really not his positions are pretty liberal and um uh but he's he speaks of as a man of faith and uh um he made it through the primary uh a contested democratic primary republicans have a runoff and uh their situation's different okay their runoff is in may as of now the president hasn't endorsed in the runoff and again you all know about this because got so much attention

John Cornyn is running against Ken Paxton.

And the conventional wisdom in the establishment is if it's Paxton, he could lose.

And my sources who are down on Paxton's chances of winning in a general election say, if it's Paxton, put this at the top of the list, that Democrats who haven't won in decades in Texas would have a chance if it's Paxton because of all the scandals he's had and his inability to win votes, perhaps from independents.

And there are those in the establishment who support John Cornyn, an incumbent, who say if it's Cornyn, it's over.

Of course, Republicans are going to win.

Now, the polls that have come out since the first round show that both Paxton and Cornyn could do quite well against Tallarico.

And in fact, the other dynamic is opposition research has started coming out on Tallarico.

And it's harder to convince the president to endorse Cornyn when the main argument that John Thune and the other members of the establishment have is he got to endorse Cornyn to save the seat.

Because if it's not Cornyn, we could lose it if it's Paxton.

And if it's Paxton, we're going to have to spend a lot of money to beat Tallarica.